Initial long covid prognosis
Millions of patients have Long Covid worldwide. Around one in six patients may expect their condition to go away within one year. Most patients will experience Long Covid in the long term. 85% of patients who had symptoms two months after infection reported symptoms after one year according to a PubMed study. Patients generally start to feel better within 12 to 18 months based on Cleveland Clinic.
An even smaller percentage of patients are expected to recover over time based on a The Lancet study. People with Long Covid arn’t likely to have a substantially higher risk of death based on a review.
Long covid in the long term
For a long term view we can look at related condition Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME/CFS) with the hallmark symptom of PEM. ME/CFS has limited data which varies widely so the course of the disease will be highly individual according to the CDC. Long Covid patients with ME/CFS can expect their condition to last for a long time although there is good hope for some improvement. Median full recovery is around 5% according to a systematic review. The median proportion of patients who improved was 40%. A subset of patients may return to work with 8 to 30% doing so. These statistics may be improved through the development of targeted therapies for COVID-19 induced ME/CFS.
We don’t have data for Long Covid extending much past five years given that Covid emerged in late 2019. PEM (Post Exertional Malaise) is the disproportionate worsening of symptoms after exertion.
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